The ethylene oxide cost line lingers downstream
Recently, ethylene oxide in the upward channel, the strength of ethylene and ethylene glycol skyrocketing, have become the main factor to promote ethylene oxide upward. So far, ethylene oxide has grown by 8% over the same period last year, and some of the lower reaches have grown by more than 14.9% over the same period last year, so the risk factor of ethylene oxide is gradually shifting to the lower reaches. Recently, the domestic ethylene oxide in the upward channel, the strong ethylene and ethylene glycol skyrocketing, have become the main factor to promote the upward ethylene oxide. So far, ethylene oxide has grown by 8% over the same period last year, and some of the lower reaches have grown by more than 14.9% over the same period last year, so the risk factor of ethylene oxide is gradually shifting to the lower reaches.
In terms of the cost of ethylene oxide in ethylene process, the high running of ethylene has a positive impact on the cost of ethylene oxide. Ethylene oxide at the edge of the cost line profit state, factory wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, do not rule out there is still up power.
In August, the increase of downstream products of ethylene oxide was between 7-15%. Compared with the 8% increase of ethylene oxide, both of them were in an overrising state. The downstream risk coefficient of ethylene oxide increased, and the trading atmosphere turned from strong to weak.
Ethylene oxide packaging
From the three-year trend chart of ethylene oxide, the current price of ethylene oxide is at the high end compared with the same period. It is reported that the current price of ethylene oxide is maintained near 10,000-10,200 yuan/ton, and the downstream high-priced cargo receiving capacity is weakened, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is heating up.
From the fundamental point of view of ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol strong pull up to 7800 yuan/ton profit margin has been more than 1000 yuan/ton, the possibility of the plant to produce ethylene oxide is not large; Ethylene prices remain high, and some operators believe they could break $1,300 / ton, with costs facing ethylene oxide more strongly supported.
From the downstream point of view, because the downstream is in the state of inflation, so at present in ethylene oxide no obvious fluctuations, some downstream high-end transaction slowed down, continue to pull up weak; In the later stage, the support for ethylene oxide may be weakened, and the enthusiasm for procurement may slow down.
From the supply situation, Maoming Petrochemical 200,000 tons of ethylene oxide after the start of the local supply side is abundant; The advantages of local downstream products are prominent and have an impact on other regions; However, part of the maintenance device is about to resume production, the supply side may continue to be prosperous.
In the short term, the price of ethylene oxide is mainly stable and wait-and-see, followed by the trend of ethylene glycol and downstream follow-up efforts.